‘Buy’ Hero Motocorp – TP Rs.2050

• Company’s 3QFY12 revenue increase at 17% yoy and EBITDA at 31% yoy are in line with market expectations.
• EBITDA margin at 15.8% up 170 bps yoy and 10 bps down qoq has also been line with market estimates.
• Company could offset higher raw material cost by lower other operating expenses.
• Depreciation increase of 7% is due to weakness in rupee against JPY.
• Domestic motorcycle volume increased 11% yoy against industry growth rate of 9%,  translating in to market share gain of 125 bps yoy.
• Company showed healthy improvement in all operating parameters yoy. Sequentially, the margins are slightly down due to seasonality and change in product mix.
• 4QFY12 volume growth is expected to be similar to that of 3Q. 
• Honda’s entry in to 100 cc bikes has been a significant overhang on the stock. However, the brand equity and distribution edge enjoyed by the company would help limit market share loss.
• Market share gain in 125 cc bikes and scooter segment will limit the market share loss in the two wheeler segment.